Friday, March 19, 2010

Heat vs. Cold

Courtesy of the EU Referendum, I saw this article playing up how many more people are going to die from heat as a result of global warming. Obviously, Richard North spent very little time with it (or probably has already had his fill of this topic), but I got a little curious.
First, the article is generally vague, refers to ambiguous sources, and makes some claims that are tautological (increased drought/flood/disease will force people from homes) or not supported by current evidence (increased tornadoes/droughts/hurricanes are observed as a result of warming; an interesting set of graphics is here, and although the sentiment may be a little over the top, I think the data is sound). The interesting thing that caught my eye (maybe because it was first) was that the heatwave of 1995 killed 750 people in Chicago, and that this could become the norm by 2050 because of global warming.
Lets see...my impression is that the CDC knows as much about how people die as anyone (a bit morbid, perhaps, but if you got it, flaunt it!) so lets check with them. Going into the Compressed Mortality database and checking on the number of people who died from extreme heat in Cook County yields the following chart.

This shows only 85 deaths by heat exposure, not 750, but the 1995 heat wave is clearly represented. Just for fun, how many deaths by cold for the same period?

Hmm. Not 85 in any one year, but several times more deaths by cold each year on average.

Expanding to the entire state of Illinois doesn't change this much; at most 126 heat deaths in 1995, and still 2-3 times more death by cold over the same period. The article refers to a government entity that cites an ambiguous study that says that "cold snaps" increased death rates by 1.6% and heat waves increased deaths by 5.7%. But if more people die from cold already, then the number represented by 1.6% could be the same or greater than the number represented by the 5.7%. The only thing I think we've learned here is that humans are warm blooded and have difficulties surviving in extreme temperatures hot and cold, and that currently we have more problems with cold (at least in Illinois). Oh, and if there is a heat wave, it sucks to be in Cook County, since 2/3 of the heat deaths state-wide came from there; this probably could be applied to any large city.

So cold kills. And where did the 750 deaths in 1995 come from? Obviously, they included deaths from other factors than heat exposure, probably things like increased incidence of disease, or some tenuously related weather events. The problem is that it isn't the heat that kills then, it is some other factor, like when it froze the other night and a car skidded on the highway killing 5 people, or increases in flu season. If you expand the criteria on one end, you need to balance that on the other end or it isn't a fair comparison.

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